Syniadau2

I agree with pretty much everything Leigh said, particularly that we mustn't be complacent. But I think the way we fight is going to have to reflect the fact that there isn't any serious opposition. We have to move from trying to persuade (there isn't really an agrument to win, because there isn't any opposition) to trying to reassure. It's a bit like the way "big brands" do advertising. They're not primarily trying to win customers, they're more trying to show that they are looking after the customers they've got. I think the biggest problem will be that it will become so obvious that we'll get a Yes vote, that people don't turn out because there's no need for them to. We'll get a 67% to 33% vote, but on a low turnout of less than 50%. - ED. No it wouldn't ... at least not according to what Clegg said yesterday. I agree that it would seem logical to hold the constituency vote for Wales and Scotland on AV rather than FPTP as well, but it would complicate things ... for there are bound to be some people who would want that as a way of getting rid of the regional lists. The real prize would be to get STV for the Senedd (and Holyrood) and the precedent is that Stormont is already elected by STV. I think there is a real chance of getting that now, and therefore I fear that changing the current system a little bit will preclude the bigger change we really want. It would be a tricky balance between principle and pragmatism. The Labour Party want to keep FPTP in Wales, because it gives them such a huge advantage. Therefore we will not get any change unless it is imposed on us by Westminster. I think it is inevitable that we will get a new Government of Wales Act within a few years, which will give us some borrowing and tax-setting powers rather than for us to continue to rely totally on the block grant. We would have to change the current Act anyway because of fewer Westminster MPs, and look again at the total number of AMs. So I'd expect a GoWA 2012, 2013 or 2014 to be in place in time for the 2015 election. If we're lucky, it will be elected by STV. Failing that, it would be AV for the constituencies (assuming this AV referendum is successful, which looks likely from this poll) but with a larger proportion of regional seats. If any part of the House of Lords is elected, it will probably be on STV as well. - CoP. Yes, that's what I've been saying for the past few years. Labour were not in favour of primary lawmaking powers while they were in control at Westminster, because it gave them a "double lock" on what the Assembly could do. As soon as they realized that they would lose control at Westminster, they switched to being in favour of primary lawmaking powers. It was only ever a question of waiting for the right moment.